Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
(-110/-110)+105
The Kansas City Royals are set to host the Tampa Bay Rays on June 26, 2025, in a matchup that carries significant weight for both teams. The Royals enter the game with a record of 38-42, struggling to find their footing this season, while the Rays boast a competitive 45-35 record, positioning themselves well in the standings. The previous game in this series saw the Rays come out on top, further emphasizing the disparity in performance between these two teams.
Michael Lorenzen is projected to take the mound for Kansas City. Despite being ranked as the 204th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Lorenzen’s 4.81 ERA reflects a season marked by inconsistency. However, his 4.23 xERA suggests he might be due for a turnaround, indicating he has been a bit unlucky this year. Lorenzen’s average projections predict he will pitch about 5.4 innings, allowing 3.2 earned runs, striking out 4.1 batters, and giving up 5.7 hits and 1.9 walks, which could spell trouble against a potent offense like Tampa Bay’s.
On the other side, Shane Baz, ranked 81st among starting pitchers, has been performing better with a 4.79 ERA and a solid 7-3 win/loss record. Baz’s projections show he is likely to pitch 5.5 innings, giving up around 2.9 earned runs and striking out 4.0 batters. He is a high-groundball pitcher facing a Royals lineup that has struggled to generate power, ranking 29th in home runs this season.
The Rays’ offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 11th overall in MLB and 5th in batting average. With an implied team total of 5.18 runs, they are favored to score against a Royals bullpen that, while ranked 6th in MLB, may face challenges against the Rays’ aggressive bats. Meanwhile, the Royals’ low offensive ranking suggests a tough night ahead against Baz. The high game total of 10.0 runs indicates that oddsmakers expect a competitive outing, but the Royals will need a significant boost from their hitters to keep pace.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Shane Baz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)Shane Baz’s curveball usage has jumped by 9.7% from last year to this one (20.5% to 30.2%) .Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Extreme flyball bats like Yandy Diaz generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Michael Lorenzen.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.7%) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s deepest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (+105)Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Kansas City Royals.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)In the last week’s worth of games, Bobby Witt Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.4% up to 22.2%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Kansas City Royals offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 75 games (+28.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-125)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 31 games (+13.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.60 Units / 32% ROI)