Boston Red Sox
San Francisco Giants
(-105/-115)-160
As the San Francisco Giants host the Boston Red Sox on June 22, 2025, both teams find themselves in intriguing positions within the standings. The Giants, with a record of 43-34, are riding a wave of positivity, particularly after edging out the Red Sox 3-2 in yesterday’s matchup. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, standing at 40-38, have been experiencing an average season and are looking to bounce back.
On the mound, the Giants are projected to start Robbie Ray, who has been performing excellently this season with a Win/Loss record of 8-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.68. Ray’s high strikeout rate—27.5%—aligns well against a Red Sox offense that ranks 3rd in MLB for strikeouts. This matchup could favor Ray, whose ability to limit earned runs (projecting 2.4 today) may be key against an offense that ranks 8th overall. However, despite the defense, the Giants’ offense has struggled, ranking 23rd in MLB and particularly weak in terms of team batting average and home runs.
Conversely, the Red Sox will counter with Lucas Giolito, who is having a rougher outing this season with a 4.73 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 3-1. While Giolito’s projections indicate a slight potential for improvement, his performance has been erratic, evidenced by his last start where he pitched 6 innings with 0 earned runs—certainly an anomaly in his season.
The Giants’ strong bullpen ranks 1st and will be a crucial asset if the game is close late. Meanwhile, the Giants are favored with a moneyline of -160, while the Red Sox sit as underdogs at +135. Given the Giants’ current form and their robust relief pitching, they could very well leverage their home advantage to secure a series victory today.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)Lucas Giolito has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his ERA this year; his 4.73 rate is considerably higher than his 4.10 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
- Carlos Narvaez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Carlos Narvaez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (66% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today’s game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Boston’s 90.7-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in Major League Baseball: #1 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Robbie Ray – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Robbie Ray’s fastball velocity has fallen 1 mph this year (93 mph) below where it was last season (94 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Tyler Fitzgerald’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 87.4-mph EV last season has decreased to 83.5-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Heliot Ramos has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games (+10.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-115)The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 36 away games (+10.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+10.80 Units / 38% ROI)