Team Stats and Prediction for Brewers vs Twins Matchup 6/20/25

Milwaukee Brewers

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers on June 20, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in an interleague matchup. The Twins are currently tied in their division with a record of 37-37, emphasizing their average season. Meanwhile, the Brewers, at 40-35, are holding their own with a slightly better record, showcasing a solid performance thus far.

This game marks the first in their three-game series, and both teams will be keen to establish dominance early on. The Twins are set to start Joe Ryan, who has been impressive this season with a 7-2 record and an excellent ERA of 2.93. Ryan ranks as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB, a testament to his reliability on the mound. However, projections suggest he may have benefited from some good fortune, as his xFIP sits at 3.68, indicating potential downward regression. Ryan’s high flyball rate (45% FB%) could work in his favor against a Brewers lineup that has hit the 6th fewest home runs in the league this year.

On the other side, the Brewers will send Jacob Misiorowski to the mound. His performance has been somewhat underwhelming, with a 0.00 ERA in just one start. However, the projections indicate that his 4.92 xFIP suggests he has also been lucky, and his average outing may not hold up over time. Misiorowski is expected to struggle with a low average of 4.3 innings pitched today, which raises concerns about the Brewers’ ability to handle the Twins’ offense effectively.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs and the Twins favored at -165 on the moneyline, the projections offer a high implied team total of 4.44 runs for Minnesota, which they may well achieve against a struggling Brewers offense.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  Jacob Misiorowski is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #21 HR venue in MLB in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Batters such as Christian Yelich with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Joe Ryan who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Milwaukee grades out as the #30 club in MLB when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (12.6% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Joe Ryan’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (63.3 compared to 54.4% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Ty France – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Ty France has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (71% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games (+10.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 36 away games (+11.22 Units / 25% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-155/+120)
  Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.20 Units / 28% ROI)