
Los Angeles Dodgers
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San Diego Padres
-160O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)+135
(-110/-110)+135
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Emmet Sheehan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Emmet Sheehan projects to strikeout 5.8 bats in today’s game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of San Diego (#2-worst of all teams on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-160)The Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order profiles as the best on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Griffin Canning – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Griffin Canning has relied on his change-up 12.1% more often this season (35%) than he did last year (22.9%).Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)Ramon Laureano is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- San Diego Padres – 2H MoneylineThe San Diego Padres bullpen projects as the best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 94% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-160)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 40 away games (+6.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+580/-1100)Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+14.90 Units / 248% ROI)
