See the Mets vs Phillies Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Friday June 20th, 2025

New York Mets

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face off against the New York Mets on June 20, 2025, both teams sit at an impressive 45-30, highlighting the significance of this National League East matchup. The stakes are heightened, especially given the context of their last games: the Phillies secured a narrow 2-1 victory, while the Mets struggled, losing 7-1. This game marks the opening of their series, and with both teams vying for a strong position, fans can expect an intense battle at Citizens Bank Park.

On the mound, Zack Wheeler is projected to start for the Phillies. Wheeler has been nothing short of exceptional this season, boasting a 7-2 record and an outstanding ERA of 2.76. He ranks as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, indicating his elite status. In his last outing on June 15, he went 6 innings, allowing just 1 earned run while striking out 9 batters. His ability to limit walks—only a 5.6 BB% this year—will be crucial against a Mets lineup that ranks 3rd in walks drawn.

Conversely, Blade Tidwell takes the mound for the Mets, projected to struggle with a 14.73 ERA and a 0-1 record this season. His last start on May 4 was disastrous, as he allowed 6 earned runs in just 4 innings. The projections suggest he may face challenges today, particularly against a Phillies offense that ranks 7th best in MLB. With their strong batting average and power potential—ranking 4th in team batting average—Philadelphia is poised to capitalize on Tidwell’s vulnerabilities.

The Phillies enter this matchup as significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -175, reflecting an implied team total of 4.81 runs. Meanwhile, the Mets, as underdogs at +155, are projected to tally just 3.69 runs. Given the current form of both pitchers and the offensive capabilities of the Phillies, this matchup leans heavily in Philadelphia’s favor.

New York Mets Insights

• Blade Tidwell – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Blade Tidwell has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -9.2 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Over the past 7 days, Starling Marte’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.3% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Zack Wheeler’s high usage rate of his fastball (57.4% this year) is likely harming his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brandon Marsh, Otto Kemp, Kyle Schwarber).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-220)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 games (+13.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (+115)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games (+8.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.30 Units / 29% ROI)