D-Backs vs Blue Jays Prediction and Game Breakdown – Tuesday June 17, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Toronto Blue Jays

On June 17, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Rogers Centre for the first game in their interleague series. The Blue Jays enter the matchup with a solid 38-33 record, showcasing an above-average season. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are slightly behind at 36-35, marking an average performance thus far.

Toronto’s Chris Bassitt, who has started 14 games this year with a 7-3 record and a commendable ERA of 3.70, is projected to take the mound. While he’s been deemed an average pitcher in terms of rankings, he faces a Diamondbacks offense that has been patient but may struggle against his low walk rate of 5.5% this season. The projections suggest that this matchup could favor Bassitt, especially since he is likely to limit walks against a team that ranks 4th in MLB for drawing them.

Conversely, Brandon Pfaadt, who also has 14 starts under his belt, brings an 8-4 record but an ERA of 5.37, labeling him as less effective by MLB standards. Furthermore, his low strikeout rate of 17.7% may not capitalize on a Blue Jays lineup that has the least strikeouts in MLB.

The Blue Jays’ offense ranks 13th overall but stands out with a 7th-best batting average. In contrast, the Diamondbacks have the 3rd-best offense and excel in home runs, which could create a fascinating contrast in styles. Toronto’s moneyline sits at -120, suggesting close betting action, while their implied team total of 4.61 runs indicates confidence in their lineup against Pfaadt. With both teams looking to gain momentum, this opening game promises to be a tightly contested affair.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Brandon Pfaadt’s change-up rate has increased by 5.4% from last year to this one (11.8% to 17.2%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Alek Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Alek Thomas is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Toronto (#2-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Ketel Marte hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Chris Bassitt’s 90.7-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.9-mph decrease from last season’s 92.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (62% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 19.9% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 56 games (+9.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 60 games (+11.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jonatan Clase – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2700)
  Jonatan Clase has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 5 games (+8.00 Units / 160% ROI)