Detailed Player Insights for Guardians vs Yankees – 6/5/2025

Cleveland Guardians

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees will host the Cleveland Guardians at Yankee Stadium on June 5, 2025, in a crucial matchup as both teams look to solidify their positions in the standings. The Yankees are currently 2nd in the American League East with a strong record of 37-23, while the Guardians sit at 3rd in the Central Division with a record of 33-27. The Yankees are coming off a disappointing 4-0 loss against the Guardians on June 4, where they were blanked, marking a rare shutout for their offense.

Max Fried, projected to start for the Yankees, is an elite left-handed pitcher, currently ranked 6th in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite a rough outing in his last start where he allowed 6 earned runs, Fried has a solid Win/Loss record of 7-1 and an excellent ERA of 1.92. He is expected to pitch around 6.4 innings today, projecting to allow just 1.8 earned runs, which speaks to his consistent performance this season.

On the other hand, Slade Cecconi will take the mound for the Guardians. He has struggled this season, with a 1-1 record and a poor ERA of 5.28. Cecconi’s last outing was also shaky, giving up 5 earned runs in just 4 innings. His projections indicate he may only pitch about 4.8 innings today, and he’s likely to face a daunting task against the Yankees’ powerful offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB with 97 home runs.

Given the Yankees’ high-powered lineup and Fried’s elite pitching, the odds heavily favor New York, reflected in their moneyline of -275. With a projected team total of 5.26 runs, the Yankees are expected to bounce back from their previous loss and capitalize on their home-field advantage.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+210)
  Slade Cecconi is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #6 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Extreme flyball bats like Jose Ramirez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Fried.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Cleveland Guardians have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Bo Naylor, Jhonkensy Noel, Gabriel Arias).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Max Fried has utilized his secondary offerings 13% less often this year (37.9%) than he did last season (50.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Trent Grisham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Trent Grisham has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 15.3% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 20 games at home (+11.62 Units / 52% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+230)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 55 games (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-145)
  Jazz Chisholm has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+9.60 Units / 96% ROI)