Chicago Cubs
Washington Nationals
(+100/-120)+120
On June 3, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the Chicago Cubs at Nationals Park in the first game of their series. Currently, the Nationals sit with a disappointing 28-31 record, placing them below .500 and struggling to find consistency this season. In stark contrast, the Cubs boast a strong 37-22 record, which reflects their position as one of the league’s top teams.
In their most recent game, the Nationals’ Trevor Williams will take the mound, looking to bounce back from his struggles. Although he has a poor ERA of 5.69 this season, projections suggest he may have been a bit unlucky, with a 4.13 xFIP that hints at better performance ahead. Williams is a low-walk pitcher, standing at 6.2 BB%, which could neutralize the Cubs’ aggressive approach as they rank 3rd in MLB in walks. However, he still projects to allow 2.9 earned runs over an average of just 4.9 innings, which could put pressure on the Nationals’ bullpen, ranked 6th overall.
Meanwhile, Cade Horton, projected to start for the Cubs, has been effective in his limited appearances, sporting a solid 3.98 ERA. His recent performances indicate he may be due for some regression, but he still has a win rate of 100% this season. With the Cubs’ offense ranked 3rd overall and having a batting average of .285, expectations are high for them to capitalize on any mistakes made by Williams.
With the game total set at a high 9.0 runs, betting on the Nationals seems risky given their struggles, yet they may benefit from facing a pitcher who is projected to pitch below average as well. As the Cubs come in as favorites with a moneyline of -150, the Nationals will need to harness their offensive potential to upset their rivals.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Cade Horton – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)With 9 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Cade Horton will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Justin Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Typically, batters like Justin Turner who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Trevor Williams.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.3% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Trevor Williams – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)Trevor Williams’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.9 mph this season (86.9 mph) below where it was last season (88.8 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)Keibert Ruiz is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Washington Nationals offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Washington Nationals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+6.47 Units / 13% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-140)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-260)CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.35 Units / 69% ROI)