Game Highlights for Mets vs Dodgers – June 02, 2025

New York Mets

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers take on the New York Mets on June 2, 2025, both teams come into the matchup in strong positions in the standings, with the Dodgers sitting at 36-23 and the Mets slightly ahead at 37-22. This game marks the first in a series between these two clubs, and it promises to be an exciting showdown given their solid records. The Dodgers recently lost to the Mets, 7-3, on June 1, which may add a layer of intensity to today’s game.

Starting for the Dodgers is Dustin May, who has had a mixed season with a 3-4 record and a 4.20 ERA. Although his ERA is above average, his xFIP of 3.45 suggests he’s been unlucky, and he has the potential to perform better moving forward. May’s last outing was uneventful, pitching 5 innings with 3 earned runs, but he did record 9 strikeouts, indicating his strikeout capability. The Dodgers’ offense ranks as the 1st best in MLB, showcasing their elite hitting, which could capitalize on Paul Blackburn, who is projected to start for the Mets. Blackburn is regarded as one of the worst pitchers in the league, and today’s projections show he might struggle, allowing 3.5 earned runs over 4.7 innings.

While the Mets have a respectable offense ranked 6th in MLB, they might find it challenging against the Dodgers’ top-tier lineup. With the Dodgers’ bullpen ranked 10th and the Mets’ at 28th, there’s a substantial advantage for Los Angeles in late-game situations. This matchup sets the stage for an intriguing contest, with the Dodgers as betting favorites, projecting an implied team total of 5.23 runs against the Mets’ 4.27. Expect the Dodgers to come out swinging, looking to reclaim their momentum in front of their home crowd.

New York Mets Insights

• Paul Blackburn – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Out of all SPs, Paul Blackburn’s fastball velocity of 91.2 mph is in the 18th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  In comparison to his 89.7-mph average last year, Pete Alonso’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 94.5 mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Francisco Lindor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 8th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  Dustin May is an extreme groundball pitcher (46.8% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #3 HR venue in the league — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Bats such as Max Muncy with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Paul Blackburn who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The underlying talent of the Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order today (.341 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .352 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-110/-120)
  Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 46% ROI)