Discover the Betting Trends for D-Backs vs Royals Game – Monday, July 22, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Kauffman Stadium on July 22, 2024, in the first game of their interleague series. The Royals, boasting a solid 55-45 record and coming off a 4-1 victory over the Chicago White Sox, are looking to maintain their competitive edge. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks, with a 51-49 record, aim to bounce back after a narrow 2-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs.

One of the key matchups to watch will be on the mound, where Kansas City’s Cole Ragans, a top-tier lefty ranked 15th in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings, faces off against Arizona’s Yilber Diaz, who has struggled significantly this season. Ragans, with a commendable 3.16 ERA and an impressive 2.66 FIP, suggests he has been slightly unlucky and could perform even better moving forward. In his last start on July 12, Ragans pitched seven strong innings, allowing just one earned run and striking out seven. On the other hand, Diaz has only made two starts this season, and although his 1.50 ERA looks stellar on the surface, his 4.35 xFIP indicates he has been rather fortunate and could be in for some regression.

Kansas City’s offense, ranked 14th overall and 11th in team batting average, matches up well against Diaz, a low-strikeout (15.6 K%) and low-walk pitcher (6.7 BB%). With the Royals being the second-least strikeout-prone team in MLB, Diaz may struggle to exploit his primary strength.

From a betting perspective, Kansas City is favored with a moneyline of -155, implying a 59% win probability. The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, aligns closely with this, projecting the Royals to have a 57% chance of victory. The Royals are also projected to score an average of 5.04 runs, while the Diamondbacks are expected to put up 4.58 runs. Given these factors, Kansas City appears to have the upper hand in this matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Yilber Diaz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Yilber Diaz’s fastball velocity of 95.5 mph is in the 93rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Christian Walker’s average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 90.6-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 67.1-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Cole Ragans – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-195/+150)
  Cole Ragans has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 6.9 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs this year; his 23.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is deflated compared to his 32.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Kansas City Royals with a 21% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 47 games at home (+11.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 57 games (+9.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+125/-165)
  Christian Walker has hit the Walks Under in 32 of his last 37 games (+22.05 Units / 29% ROI)