See the Weather Forecast for Blue Jays vs Rays – Sunday, May 25th, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays host the Toronto Blue Jays on May 25, 2025, both teams enter the matchup with identical records of 25-26, reflecting a shared struggle for consistency this season. The stakes are heightened in this American League East rivalry, especially after the Rays edged out the Blue Jays with a 3-1 victory in their previous encounter on May 24.

Ryan Pepiot is projected to take the mound for the Rays, coming off an uneventful start where he allowed three earned runs over six innings. His season has been average at best, with a 2-5 Win/Loss record and a 3.99 ERA. However, both his xERA and FIP suggest he may have been fortunate so far, hinting at potential struggles ahead. Facing him will be Chris Bassitt, who has been impressive with a 4-2 record and an excellent 2.83 ERA. Bassitt’s last outing saw him dominate with zero earned runs over six innings, and he will look to carry that momentum into this game.

Offensively, the Rays rank 24th in the league, struggling to find production despite having the 2nd best stolen base rate. Out of 30 teams, their power numbers remain alarming, sitting 23rd in home runs. Conversely, the Blue Jays offer an average offensive output, ranking 18th overall, but they too have faced challenges in driving runs across the plate, notably ranking 25th in home runs.

Given the projections, the matchup favors Chris Bassitt, who holds an advantage over Ryan Pepiot. Bettors should consider that the Rays’ moneyline sits at -110, indicating a competitive contest, while the projected Game Total stands at 8.5 runs, suggesting a moderate scoring affair. With both teams striving for a foothold in the division, expect a closely-fought game as they vie for crucial wins.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Because of his large platoon split, Chris Bassitt will not have the upper hand going up against 7 bats in the projected offense of opposing handedness in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (85% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Toronto’s 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the majors: #9 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Among all SPs, Ryan Pepiot’s fastball spin rate of 2395 rpm ranks in the 76th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ben Rortvedt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Ben Rortvedt’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 86.2-mph average last season has fallen to 81.4-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.2%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games (+13.75 Units / 33% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.0 (+115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 47 games (+7.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
  Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+7.20 Units / 26% ROI)