Game Recap for Padres vs Braves – Friday, May 23rd, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Atlanta Braves

On May 23, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the San Diego Padres at Truist Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Braves are currently sitting at 4th in the National League East with a record of 24-25, while the Padres are in 2nd place in the National League West, boasting a record of 27-21. Both teams enter this matchup looking to bounce back after tough losses in their previous games, with the Braves falling 8-7 and the Padres losing 7-6.

The pitching matchup features Chris Sale for the Braves and Nick Pivetta for the Padres. Sale, ranked as the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has shown flashes of brilliance, despite his 2-3 record and a solid 3.62 ERA this season. His last outing on May 16 was particularly impressive, where he pitched 7 innings, allowing just 1 earned run with 8 strikeouts. However, he faces a challenge against a Padres offense that has been tough to strike out, ranking 1st in the league in that category.

On the other hand, Pivetta, ranked 60th among starting pitchers, has had a good season with a 5-2 record and an excellent 2.86 ERA. But projections suggest he may be due for some regression, as his xFIP of 3.63 indicates he has been somewhat fortunate. Pivetta’s last start was also strong, going 6 innings with just 1 earned run.

Offensively, the Braves rank 14th in the league, while the Padres are slightly better at 13th. The Braves will rely on their best hitter, who has been on fire lately, posting a .524 batting average over the last week with 4 home runs. Meanwhile, the Padres’ best hitter also excels, with a .290 batting average and 1.107 OPS.

With Atlanta favored at -180 on the moneyline, the Braves are expected to capitalize on their home-field advantage, making this matchup one to watch as both teams strive to turn their fortunes around.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Nick Pivetta’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (54.4 vs. 48.2% last season) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Manny Machado has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 11.3% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Chris Sale’s fastball spin rate of 2229 rpm ranks in the 25th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Matt Olson has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 102.9-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 94.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 94% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 away games (+3.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+120/-155)
  Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.00 Units / 26% ROI)