See the Weather Forecast for Orioles vs Brewers – Tuesday, May 20th, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

@

Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers and Baltimore Orioles face off in their second game of the series on May 20, 2025, both teams are struggling this season. The Brewers sit at 23-25, while the Orioles have a dismal record of 15-31. With both teams outside of contention for their divisions, this matchup is more about playing for pride and developing young talent as they look to improve in the weeks ahead.

In their last encounter, the Brewers fell short against the Orioles, and they’ll be hoping to bounce back today. Milwaukee is projected to start Logan Henderson, who has been solid with a 2-0 record and an impressive 2.45 ERA this season. Although he ranks as the 82nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, his 3.11 FIP suggests some regression might be in store. Henderson projects to pitch around 4.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs and striking out about 5.2 batters.

On the other side, Chayce McDermott takes the mound for Baltimore. His performance has been shaky, with a 12.00 ERA in just one start this year. Despite the poor numbers, projections indicate he could experience some positive regression. McDermott is expected to pitch roughly 4.4 innings while giving up 2.4 earned runs, but his high flyball rate could be problematic against a Brewers lineup that has struggled to generate power.

The Brewers offense ranks a concerning 26th in the league, while Baltimore is slightly ahead at 21st. This matchup features two below-average offenses, making the current Game Total of 8.5 runs seem like a fair estimate. With the Brewers favored at -125, betting markets see this as a close contest, but with Henderson on the mound, Milwaukee may have the edge they need to turn things around.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Cedric Mullins has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (70% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  The Baltimore Orioles bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Logan Henderson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Logan Henderson was in good form in his previous outing and notched 9 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Isaac Collins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Isaac Collins has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.8-mph dropping to 75.1-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+8.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 22 away games (+14.00 Units / 55% ROI)
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 43% ROI)