Find the Official Lineup for Braves vs Red Sox – 5/17/2025

Atlanta Braves

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Boston Red Sox

On May 17, 2025, the Boston Red Sox host the Atlanta Braves at Fenway Park for the second game of this interleague series. The Red Sox are currently struggling with a record of 22-24, while the Braves sit slightly better at 23-22. Both teams are looking to improve their standings, with the Red Sox’s offense ranking 8th in MLB this season, a positive indicator despite their overall below-average performance.

In their last matchup on May 16, the Red Sox fell to the Braves by a score of 4-2, marking another disappointment in what has been a challenging season for Boston. They will look to bounce back with Lucas Giolito on the mound, who has had a tumultuous season thus far, posting a 1-1 record with a troubling ERA of 5.51. However, his 3.80 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, and he projects to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing 3.1 earned runs—indicative of potential improvement.

The Braves will counter with Grant Holmes, who has started 8 games this year with a record of 2-3 and an ERA of 4.14. While Holmes has been effective in his last outing, allowing just 1 earned run over 6 innings, his projections indicate he might struggle against a potent Red Sox lineup, as he is projected to allow 3.3 earned runs and 6.0 hits today.

With a high Game Total set at 9.5 runs, both teams have the potential to contribute offensively. The Red Sox’s best hitter has been on fire recently, boasting a .474 batting average over the last week, while the Braves’ top player has also been productive, hitting .692. This game promises to be competitive, with Boston holding a slight edge based on their offensive capabilities and the projections favoring Giolito’s potential for a turnaround.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (+100)
  Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Nick Allen – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
  Nick Allen is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Boston (#1-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Atlanta’s 90-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in the league: #7 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Lucas Giolito has a mean projection of 3.14 earned runs in today’s game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Trevor Story is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+9.25 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+9.80 Units / 60% ROI)
• Nick Sogard – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Nick Sogard has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.25 Units / 35% ROI)