Chicago White Sox
Cincinnati Reds
(-115/-105)-210
On May 13, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Chicago White Sox at Great American Ball Park in what marks the first game of their interleague series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Reds sitting at 20-22, while the White Sox languish at 12-29. Cincinnati is projected to start Andrew Abbott, who has shown flashes of potential despite ranking as the 154th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Abbott is 2-0 this season with a stellar ERA of 2.25, although his xFIP of 3.80 suggests he may face some regression.
The White Sox, on the other hand, will counter with Jonathan Cannon, who is among the worst pitchers in the league. Cannon’s 4.09 ERA is a bit misleading, as evidenced by his xFIP of 4.88, indicating he has had some luck. His low strikeout rate (16.9 K%) could be a recipe for disaster against a Reds offense that strikes out frequently, ranking 4th in MLB.
Cincinnati’s offense ranks 13th overall, bolstered by their 3rd best ranking in stolen bases, while the White Sox sit at the bottom with the 30th offense in MLB. The disparity in power is significant, with the Reds being able to exploit Cannon’s weaknesses, especially given that the White Sox have hit just 29 home runs this year, the 3rd least in MLB.
With a high total of 9.5 runs, the Reds are betting favorites at -195, suggesting a strong likelihood of victory against a team that has consistently underperformed. The projections favor the Reds heavily, and with Abbott on the mound, they should seize this opportunity to claim an early win in their series against a struggling White Sox squad.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)Jonathan Cannon is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue among all parks in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Cincinnati’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Miguel Vargas, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- The Chicago White Sox have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Luis Robert Jr., Timothy Elko, Michael A. Taylor).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)Andrew Abbott has utilized his change-up 6.1% more often this year (22.5%) than he did last season (16.4%).Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)Matt McLain has strong power (86th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (28.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jonathan Cannon has a pitch-to-contact profile (17th percentile K%) — great news for McLain.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- The 7% Barrel% of the Cincinnati Reds ranks them as the #28 team in the league this year by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-210)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 32 games (+4.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 16 games (+6.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+4.70 Units / 23% ROI)