Red Sox vs Royals Game Highlights – Saturday, May 10, 2025

Boston Red Sox

@

Kansas City Royals

On May 10, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Boston Red Sox at Kauffman Stadium in what is shaping up to be a compelling matchup. The Royals, currently sitting at 24-16, are enjoying a strong season, while the Red Sox hold a record of 20-20, placing them in the middle of the pack. In their last encounter, the Royals edged out the Red Sox 2-1, giving them a slight psychological edge heading into this game.

The starting pitchers for this matchup are Cole Ragans for the Royals and Garrett Crochet for the Red Sox. Ragans, rated as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has shown significant potential this season with a solid 3.79 ERA and an impressive 38.5% strikeout rate. In his most recent outing on May 5, he delivered a standout performance, pitching 5 innings with 11 strikeouts and no earned runs. The projections indicate that Ragans will allow an average of just 2.0 earned runs today, showcasing his ability to limit scoring.

In contrast, Garrett Crochet, ranked 11th, has also been effective with a 2.02 ERA. However, his peripherals suggest he may not sustain this level of performance. The Red Sox offense, while ranked 10th overall, faces a challenge against Ragans’ high strikeout rate, especially considering they rank 3rd in the league for strikeouts.

Both teams have struggled with their offensive consistency, with Kansas City ranking 25th in overall offensive output and Boston holding a higher, yet still modest, 10th place. The low Game Total of 7.0 runs indicates that runs may be hard to come by. Kansas City’s slight advantage in pitching and the recent success over Boston could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of this tightly-contested game.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Garrett Crochet (44.7% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 FB hitters in Kansas City’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kristian Campbell – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Kristian Campbell is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Cole Ragans – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Cole Ragans’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (48.9 vs. 41.8% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Freddy Fermin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Freddy Fermin’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 87.8-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 78.4-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Kansas City Royals with a 20.1% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 15 games (+12.50 Units / 57% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 36 games (+9.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-145)
  Jonathan India has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.10 Units / 21% ROI)