Betting Odds and Bets for Marlins vs White Sox – 5/10/25

Miami Marlins

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Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox will host the Miami Marlins on May 10, 2025, in what promises to be a matchup of struggling teams. Both clubs sit near the bottom of their respective divisions, with the White Sox holding an 11-28 record and the Marlins at 14-23. In their previous encounter, the White Sox fell to the Marlins, a disappointing outcome that adds pressure for the home team to bounce back.

On the mound, Chicago is set to start Shane Smith, a right-handed pitcher who has showcased some impressive stats this season, including an excellent ERA of 2.41 over 7 starts. However, he has been somewhat fortunate, as indicated by his 4.40 xFIP, suggesting he might regress. Despite his strong ERA, his peripherals reveal that he gives up an alarming average of 4.8 hits per game and walks 1.6 batters. In contrast, Edward Cabrera, also a right-hander for Miami, has struggled mightily with a 6.29 ERA and a 4.35 xFIP that hints at better days ahead. Cabrera’s projection suggests he could allow around 2.4 earned runs, which is promising given the White Sox’s 29th-ranked offense.

The White Sox’s offense ranks 29th in the league, lacking power and consistency, and their recent performance hasn’t improved their standing. Meanwhile, the Marlins, although middle-of-the-pack offensively, should be able to capitalize on Smith’s high walk rate against a less patient lineup. The projections indicate a close contest, with both teams holding an average implied total of 4.25 runs.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, both teams will look to break out of their respective slumps. The stakes are high, and the White Sox will need a standout performance from Smith to even the series against a Miami team that has shown flashes of potential.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Edward Cabrera’s fastball velocity of 96.2 mph is in the 95th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt Mervis – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+100/-130)
  Matt Mervis has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt Mervis, Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Shane Smith is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.3% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #7 HR venue among all stadiums — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Luis Robert Jr. has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.8-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 88.2-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.25 Units / 41% ROI)
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Lenyn Sosa has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+5.65 Units / 19% ROI)