Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
(-110/-110)-115
As the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers clash on May 9, 2025, at Chase Field, both teams are hoping to build momentum in this closely matched National League West showdown. Arizona took the previous game in the series by a score of 5-3, marking a solid victory that will provide them confidence heading into this contest.
The Diamondbacks currently sit at 20-18, boasting an above-average season, while the Dodgers lead the division with a strong 25-13 record. However, recent trends show Arizona’s offense ranking 6th overall in MLB and 7th in team home runs, indicating they’re capable of putting runs on the board against any pitching staff. In contrast, the Dodgers possess the 2nd best offense in MLB, coupled with an impressive 3rd rank in team batting average.
On the mound, Arizona is projected to start Eduardo Rodriguez, who, despite a 1-3 record and a troubling ERA of 5.92, has an xFIP suggesting he’s been a bit unlucky this year. Rodriguez has shown he can strike out batters, projecting an average of 5.1 strikeouts today, but he also has serious control issues with 2.0 walks projected. Roki Sasaki, pitching for the Dodgers, has a solid 1-1 record and a good ERA of 3.86, but projections indicate that he may struggle today, especially against a patient D-Backs lineup that draws walks more than most.
With a high Game Total set at 10.5 runs, betting markets view this matchup as highly competitive, reflected in the D-Backs’ moneyline of -120 and Dodgers’ +100. Analysts highlight the potential for a close, high-scoring affair that could swing either way based on the performances of these starters.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Roki Sasaki – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Because of his reverse platoon split, Roki Sasaki will benefit from squaring off against 6 batters in the projected offense of opposing handedness in today’s matchup.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- James Outman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)James Outman is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#2-best of the day).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)In today’s game, Mookie Betts is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.7% rate (96th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-115)Out of every team today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Arizona Diamondbacks.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks (20.4 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-heavy group of batters of all teams on the slate.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-105)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+150/-195)Pavin Smith has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 56% ROI)