Updated Player Rankings for Brewers vs Rays – May 9th, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers on May 9, 2025, both teams are looking to find some stability in their seasons. The Rays sit at 16-21 and are struggling, while the Brewers hold a slightly better record at 19-19, reflecting an average performance thus far. With the Rays projected to start Zack Littell on the mound, who has had a rocky start to the season with a 2-5 record and a mediocre ERA of 4.61, the matchup favors the Brewers. Meanwhile, Jose Quintana, having an impressive year with a 4-1 record and an outstanding ERA of 2.83, brings a significant advantage for Milwaukee.

Littell’s advanced metrics shine a less favorable light on his performance, as he carries a 5.21 xERA, suggesting he may not maintain his current level of success. In contrast, Quintana, despite being one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to the Power Rankings, has shown effectiveness with a strong win-loss record. Nonetheless, his projections indicate he might face challenges today, potentially allowing 3.0 earned runs and 2.1 walks.

The Rays’ offense has struggled as well, ranking 23rd in MLB in overall performance, compounded by a dismal 25th in home runs. Their best hitter has been in good form lately, boasting a .500 batting average over the last week. However, the Brewers’ offense is not much better, ranking 21st overall and 23rd in batting average.

With both bullpens rated as average, the projected total for the game stands at a high 9.0 runs. The betting markets reflect a competitive matchup, with both teams sitting at a moneyline of -110. All things considered, the Brewers may hold the upper hand heading into this interleague clash.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Jose Quintana’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this season (89.6 mph) below where it was last year (90.7 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Sal Frelick has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (82% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Milwaukee has performed as the #30 offense in the league when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (11.8% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Zack Littell is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #10 HR venue among all major league parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Yandy Diaz has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93-mph to 97.4-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 7.5% Barrel% of the Tampa Bay Rays makes them the #24 squad in MLB this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.20 Units / 25% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 37 games (+5.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-170)
  Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 47% ROI)