Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
(-120/+100)-135
The Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros are set for the second game of their series at T-Mobile Park on July 20, 2024. Seattle, currently holding a 52-47 record, is having an above-average season, with the Astros slightly trailing at 51-46. Both teams are in the thick of the competitive American League West race, making every game critical.
In their last matchup on July 19, the Astros emerged victorious with a 3-0 shutout. The Mariners had entered that game as slight favorites with a closing Moneyline price of -115, suggesting a close contest, which indeed it was. Houston’s +105 Moneyline indicated a narrow underdog status, and they capitalized on their opportunities, thanks in part to their potent offense.
The pitching duel for today promises to be intriguing. Seattle will send George Kirby to the mound, who boasts a stellar 3.29 ERA this season. Kirby, ranked 13th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been exceptional with a low walk rate of 2.8%. However, given that the Astros’ offense ranks 6th in fewest walks in MLB, Kirby’s pinpoint control will be tested.
On the other side, Houston is countering with Framber Valdez. While Valdez’s 3.66 ERA is solid, he ranks 25th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings. His projection to allow around 2.5 earned runs in 5.9 innings aligns with his good but not elite performance this season. Valdez will face a Mariners offense that ranks 30th in team batting average but has shown some power, ranking 10th in home runs.
The Mariners’ bullpen, ranked 26th, could be a weak link despite their overall positive season performance. In contrast, the Astros’ bullpen, ranked 6th, provides a solid backstop for Valdez, especially in close games.
THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Mariners a slight edge with a projected win probability of 56% compared to the betting line’s implied 55%. This slight discrepancy suggests there could be some value in backing Seattle, especially with Kirby’s elite status on the mound.
Houston Astros Insights
- Framber Valdez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Given that flyball batters have a big edge over groundball pitchers, Framber Valdez and his 59.2% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome spot in today’s outing being matched up with 0 opposing GB hitters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Over the past two weeks, Jose Altuve’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. George Kirby has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 58.6% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Cal Raleigh has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.8-mph to 105.6-mph over the last week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Seattle Mariners offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 9th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+7.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Run Line +1.5 (-195)The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 24 games (+17.20 Units / 53% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+12.25 Units / 17% ROI)