Explore the Game Breakdown: Yankees vs Orioles Team Stats and Insights – 4/29/2025

New York Yankees

@

Baltimore Orioles

On April 29, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the New York Yankees in the second game of their series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Yankees currently stand at 17-12, showcasing a strong season so far, while the Orioles are struggling with an 11-17 record. In a noteworthy twist, the Orioles pulled off a narrow victory against the Yankees in their last outing, winning 4-3 on April 28.

In terms of pitching matchups, Kyle Gibson is projected to take the mound for the Orioles. Unfortunately for Baltimore, Gibson has been less than impressive with a Power Rankings position of #227 among MLB starters, indicating he is among the league’s worst. His projections today suggest he will pitch around 5.1 innings while allowing 3.4 earned runs, 5.7 hits, and 2.0 walks. Comparatively, Carlos Rodon is set to start for the Yankees. Rodon has been more consistent, holding an average ERA of 3.50 and showing signs of better luck with a 2.90 xERA. His projections are for 5.4 innings pitched, allowing 3.2 earned runs, but still giving up a concerning 5.3 hits and 2.1 walks.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the 1st best offense in MLB, ranking 2nd in batting average and 1st in home runs. Meanwhile, the Orioles’ offense ranks a dismal 21st. The projections indicate a high-scoring game, with the total set at 9.5 runs. Given the strength of the Yankees’ lineup against a struggling Gibson, they are favored to win. However, the Orioles’ recent victory could inject some much-needed confidence as they attempt to turn their season around.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175)
  Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #7 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Ben Rice has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.9-mph average to last season’s 90-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 12.4% Barrel% of the New York Yankees grades them out as the #1 team in the game this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Kyle Gibson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  With 6 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Kyle Gibson will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Cedric Mullins has had some very good luck with his home runs since the start of last season; his 23.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a fair amount higher than his 15.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Ryan Mountcastle has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.82 Units / 56% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-125/-105)
  Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+17.45 Units / 69% ROI)