Read the Mets vs Twins Betting Guide – April 14, 2025

New York Mets

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the New York Mets on April 14, 2025, both teams bring contrasting momentum into this early-season interleague matchup. The Mets are riding high after a convincing 8-0 victory in their last game, while the Twins are looking to build on a recent win, having defeated their opponent 5-1 just yesterday.

Currently, the Twins sit at 5-11, struggling in the early going, while the Mets enjoy a solid 10-5 record, placing them among the top performers this season. However, the Twins have been buoyed by their potent bullpen, which ranks 5th best in MLB according to the latest Power Rankings, even as their offense has struggled, ranking 25th overall.

On the mound, the Twins are projected to start Joe Ryan, who has shown promise with a strong 2.65 ERA this season despite a higher 3.97 xFIP suggesting he may not maintain this level of performance. Ryan’s last outing was impressive, as he pitched 7 innings, allowing no earned runs and striking out 4. The Mets will counter with Clay Holmes, who has a more average 4.30 ERA and is coming off a rough start where he surrendered 4 earned runs over 5 innings but struck out an impressive 10 batters.

Given the projections and their overall standing, the Twins have a slight edge in this matchup, particularly with their bullpen’s strength. While both offenses have their struggles, the Twins will be looking to exploit Holmes’ high walk rate against a team that lacks patience at the plate. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a tightly contested duel. With the Twins’ bullpen backing Ryan and their need to gain traction in the standings, they could be poised for a crucial win in this series opener.

New York Mets Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Clay Holmes must realize this, because he has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls a lot since the start of last season: 59.8% of the time, grading out in the 79th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Luisangel Acuna – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Batters such as Luisangel Acuna with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Joe Ryan who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Joe Ryan’s 92-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 2-mph decrease from last year’s 94-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Willi Castro is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Minnesota Twins have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 15 games (+0.85 Units / 5% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 away games (+3.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+7.05 Units / 48% ROI)