Winning Probability and Match Preview for Red Sox vs Rays – 4/14/2025

Boston Red Sox

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Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays host the Boston Red Sox in a pivotal American League East matchup on April 14, 2025. Both teams are struggling this season, with Tampa Bay sitting at 7-8 and Boston slightly better at 8-9. The Rays are hoping to turn around their fortunes after a tough start, while the Red Sox are looking to regain momentum. In their last outing, the Rays fell to the Red Sox, marking an important win for Boston.

On the mound, Tampa Bay is projected to start Shane Baz, who has had a strong showing thus far with a 1-0 record and an impressive 1.38 ERA over two starts. Although Baz’s xFIP of 2.89 suggests he may have benefited from some luck, he remains the 69th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. He faces a challenging Red Sox lineup that leads the league in strikeouts, which might play to his advantage given his high strikeout rate of 31.4%.

Opposing him is Tanner Houck, who has struggled to find his footing with a 0-1 record and a 4.41 ERA. His 14.9% strikeout rate could be problematic against a Rays offense that ranks 10th overall and 4th in batting average this season. While Houck’s projections indicate he may allow 2.4 earned runs and 5.2 hits, the Rays lineup has the potential to exploit his weaknesses.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs, the betting markets have the Rays at -120, reflecting a close contest. Tampa Bay’s offense may be able to capitalize on Houck’s inconsistencies, and their strong overall ranking could boost their chances despite their recent struggles. The narrative leans slightly in favor of the Rays, as they look to bounce back and establish their dominance in this series.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Tanner Houck – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Given that flyball pitchers hold a substantial edge over flyball bats, Tanner Houck and his 50.7% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable spot today matching up with 3 opposing FB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Triston Casas has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (92% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Shane Baz’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (58.9% compared to 52.1% last year) should work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Kameron Misner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Kameron Misner has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 93.4-mph dropping to 84.2-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be sensible to expect weaker performance for the Tampa Bay Rays offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 9th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.75 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Jonathan Aranda has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+9.10 Units / 42% ROI)