Official Lineup for Reds vs Giants – 4/09/2025

Cincinnati Reds

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San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants host the Cincinnati Reds on April 9, 2025, the stakes are high in this National League matchup. The Giants come into this game boasting a strong 8-3 record, reflecting their solid performance this season, while the Reds struggle at 5-7. In their last game, the Giants secured a win against the Reds, continuing their impressive run.

Starting for the Giants is Justin Verlander, a right-handed pitcher ranked as the 84th best in MLB according to advanced stats, indicating he’s above average. While his ERA sits at a troubling 6.14 this year, his 4.49 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and may rebound. Verlander projects to pitch around 5.9 innings and is expected to allow just 2.2 earned runs, which is excellent. However, he also has concerning projections for hits and walks allowed, which could complicate matters.

On the mound for the Reds is Nick Martinez, also a right-handed pitcher. Martinez’s struggles are evident, with a 5.91 ERA and a 0-2 record this season. His projections show he may pitch approximately 5.3 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and 5.0 hits. While he’s considered an average pitcher, his recent performances have not shown much promise.

Offensively, the Giants rank 16th in MLB, showcasing an average talent level, while the Reds rank a disappointing 26th. The Giants’ bullpen is strong, rated 2nd overall, further tipping the balance in their favor. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations of a tightly contested matchup. With San Francisco favored at a moneyline of -145, the projections indicate they should capitalize on their current form against a struggling Reds offense.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Nick Martinez is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #28 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Jake Fraley will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the San Francisco Giants only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-175/+135)
  Justin Verlander has utilized his slider 11.1% more often this year (30.4%) than he did last season (19.3%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Extreme groundball batters like Wilmer Flores are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Martinez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Mike Yastrzemski pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+10.30 Units / 26% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 79 of their last 135 games (+15.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• LaMonte Wade Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  LaMonte Wade Jr has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.20 Units / 81% ROI)