Game Location for Yankees vs Pirates – 4/5/25

New York Yankees

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the New York Yankees face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 5, 2025, the stakes are heightened following yesterday’s matchup, where the Yankees triumphed 9-4. The Yankees, currently at 5-2, are enjoying a solid start to their season, ranking as the 1st best offense in MLB. In contrast, the Pirates sit at 2-6, struggling with their performance and ranking 45th in offensive output.

Pirates’ left-hander Bailey Falter is projected to take the mound, having had a decent start to the season with a 3.00 ERA, although his underlying metrics suggest he might be due for some regression. Falter’s last outing on March 29 saw him pitch effectively over 6 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs. However, he faces a tough challenge against the Yankees’ potent lineup. The projections indicate he may struggle today, projecting an average of 2.9 earned runs and allowing 5.3 hits over 5.1 innings.

On the other side, Yankees’ Marcus Stroman, despite being considered among the worst pitchers per advanced metrics, is facing a Pirates lineup that has consistently struggled against right-handed pitching. Stroman, who comes off a start where he allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings, has been low on strikeouts this season, which may prove beneficial against a Pirates offense that ranks 4th in MLB for most strikeouts.

With the Yankees boasting an implied team total of 5.23 runs compared to the Pirates’ 4.27, the odds favor the visiting team. However, given the stark contrast in offensive abilities, the Yankees are positioned well to capitalize on the Pirates’ misfortunes and secure another victory in this interleague showdown.

New York Yankees Insights

• Marcus Stroman – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Considering that flyball pitchers hold a big advantage over flyball batters, Marcus Stroman and his 49.7% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in this outing facing 2 opposing FB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Typically, hitters like Aaron Judge who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Bailey Falter.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The New York Yankees have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jazz Chisholm Jr., Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Bailey Falter has used his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 62.5% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Adam Frazier is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 62 games at home (+9.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 71 of their last 126 games (+15.45 Units / 11% ROI)
• Enmanuel Valdez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.45 Units / 75% ROI)