Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Yankees
(-105/-115)-140
The New York Yankees will host the Arizona Diamondbacks for the third game of their series on April 3, 2025, after the Yankees dropped a close one yesterday, losing 4-3. Both teams are off to strong starts this season, with the Yankees holding a record of 3-2 and the Diamondbacks at 4-2. This matchup is significant as both teams have displayed potent offensive capabilities, with the Yankees ranking 1st in MLB for home runs this season.
Carlos Carrasco is set to take the mound for the Yankees, but he comes into this game with a troubling ERA of 13.50 and a low strikeout rate of 18.2 K%. Despite not having started any games so far this season, projections suggest he may struggle against a Diamondbacks offense that has been effective at capitalizing on pitchers’ weaknesses. The D-Backs have a high walk rate, which could be mitigated by Carrasco’s excellent control, but his lack of strikeouts might give the Diamondbacks more opportunities to score.
On the flip side, Merrill Kelly will pitch for Arizona and has shown solid form, with an ERA of 1.69 in his lone start this season. However, his high-groundball tendencies will be tested against a powerful Yankees offense capable of hitting home runs at a high rate.
The Yankees also boast the best offense in MLB, according to advanced projections, which may give them an edge in what is expected to be a close game. Betting markets reflect this, with the Yankees sitting at -135 on the moneyline and a hefty implied team total of 5.02 runs for today’s matchup. As both teams look to build on their strong start, expect an exciting showdown at Yankee Stadium.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)Merrill Kelly is an extreme groundball pitcher (42.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #4 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Eugenio Suarez is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of New York (#2-worst of all teams on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Today’s version of the D-Backs projected batting order is weaker than usual, as their .310 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .323 overall projected rate.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
New York Yankees Insights
- Carlos Carrasco – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)The Arizona Diamondbacks have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Carlos Carrasco in this matchup.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)Anthony Volpe is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The 10.9% Barrel% of the New York Yankees ranks them as the #1 squad in the game since the start of last season by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 116 games (+16.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 75 of their last 121 games (+28.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+15.20 Units / 36% ROI)