Yankees vs Blue Jays Picks and Odds – July 02, 2025

New York Yankees

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the New York Yankees on July 2, 2025, both teams are in contention for the American League East crown, with the Yankees currently holding a slight edge in the standings at 48-37 compared to the Blue Jays’ 47-38. This matchup is particularly crucial as it marks the third game in their series, intensifying the rivalry.

In their last outing, the Blue Jays showcased their offensive prowess, winning decisively against the Yankees. Toronto’s bats have been productive, with their offense ranking 12th in MLB, buoyed by a solid .274 team batting average, which stands as the 3rd best in the league. However, they struggle with power, sitting 21st in home runs, and their base running has been lackluster, ranking 26th in stolen bases.

On the mound, the Blue Jays are projected to start Jose Berrios, who has had a mixed season with a 4-3 record and a solid 3.26 ERA. While Berrios ranks 142nd among starting pitchers, his xFIP of 4.14 suggests he may have benefited from some good luck thus far. He is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs, which could be a concern against a potent Yankees lineup.

The Yankees will counter with Will Warren, who has been a bright spot for their rotation with a 5-4 record and a 4.37 ERA. Warren ranks 76th among MLB starters, and his impressive xFIP of 3.14 indicates he has been slightly unlucky this season. He is also projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, which could give the Yankees an edge.

Betting markets view this game as closely contested, with the Blue Jays’ moneyline set at +110 and the Yankees at -130. The Game Total is pegged at 8.5 runs, reflecting the expected competitiveness of this AL East showdown. With both teams looking to solidify their positions, fans can expect an exciting matchup filled with playoff implications.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Will Warren will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing hitters in this matchup… and will be extra-advantaged due to his large platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Aaron Judge has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.2-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 95.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-135)
  The 2nd-best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the New York Yankees.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Jose Berrios’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.8 mph this year (91.7 mph) below where it was last season (93.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Davis Schneider is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of New York (#1-worst on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 59 games (+15.90 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 70 games (+19.82 Units / 25% ROI)
• Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+140/-185)
  Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 away games (+7.40 Units / 148% ROI)