White Sox vs Tigers Game Highlights – Sunday, September 7, 2025

Chicago White Sox

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Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers will host the Chicago White Sox on September 7, 2025, in a crucial American League Central matchup. With the Tigers holding a strong record of 82-61, they are firmly in the playoff picture, while the White Sox languish at 54-89, struggling through a dismal season. In their last game, the Tigers secured a 5-2 victory over the White Sox, continuing their push for postseason contention.

Charlie Morton is projected to take the mound for the Tigers, bringing a mixed season to the forefront. Though he has a Win/Loss record of 9-10 and an ERA of 5.51, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a turnaround, as his 4.28 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky. Morton is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 6.1 batters, which may play a pivotal role against the White Sox’s struggling offense.

On the other side, Davis Martin is slated to start for the White Sox, carrying a record of 6-9 and an ERA of 4.06. Despite this being above average, projections indicate he may face challenges, especially against a high-strikeout Tigers lineup that ranks 4th in MLB for strikeouts. Martin’s low strikeout rate (17.4 K%) could be exploited by the Tigers’ potent bats.

The Tigers’ offense ranks 11th overall, including 10th in batting average and 9th in home runs, showcasing their ability to generate runs. In contrast, the White Sox rank 28th in offense, which doesn’t bode well as they face a tough Tigers pitching staff. With a game total set at 9.0 runs and Detroit being significant favorites with a moneyline of -175, it appears the Tigers are well-positioned to continue their winning ways.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Davis Martin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Davis Martin has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 13.8% less often this season (57.9%) than he did last year (71.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  In terms of his home runs, Colson Montgomery has been very fortunate this year. His 52.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 36.0.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Curtis Mead – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Curtis Mead has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and will be challenged by the game’s 10th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-180)
  Among every team playing today, the worst infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Zach McKinstry has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.7% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Detroit Tigers offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 82 of their last 142 games (+20.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games (+12.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (-110/-120)
  Gleyber Torres has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+9.40 Units / 37% ROI)