White Sox vs Orioles Game Time – 5/30/2025

Chicago White Sox

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Baltimore Orioles

On May 30, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Chicago White Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in what is expected to be a clash between two struggling teams. Both squads are having rough seasons, with the Orioles sitting at 19-36 and the White Sox at 18-38. The Orioles are coming off a tough week and looking to turn things around, while the White Sox have also struggled to find their footing.

The pitching matchup features Zach Eflin for Baltimore, who has been somewhat of a bright spot for the team this year with a 3-2 record, despite an ERA of 5.40 that suggests he has been unlucky and could perform better. Eflin’s projected performance indicates he can handle the weak White Sox offense, which ranks 28th in the league and has hit only 46 home runs this season—fourth least in MLB. Given Eflin’s high flyball rate (38 FB%), he may benefit from facing a lineup with minimal power.

On the other side, Sean Burke is taking the mound for Chicago, sporting a 3-5 record and a more favorable ERA of 4.33. However, Burke’s underlying metrics are concerning; his 5.55 xFIP indicates he may be due for regression. The Orioles’ offense, while not stellar, ranks 20th overall and possesses the 10th best home run tally. This could bode well against a White Sox bullpen ranked 29th and struggling significantly.

With the Orioles favored at -225, the projections suggest a high implied team total of 5.35 runs for Baltimore. Despite their overall poor performance, the Orioles have the advantage in this matchup, especially given the struggles of the White Sox lineup, which could make this game an opportunity for Baltimore to gain some momentum.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Sean Burke – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Sean Burke’s 2538-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 98th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Edgar Quero – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Edgar Quero is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+180)
  The 4th-worst projected offense on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Chicago White Sox.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)
  Zach Eflin is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.5% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Oriole Park at Camden Yards — the #4 HR venue among all major league parks — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Gunnar Henderson has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last season’s 92.7-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  The Baltimore Orioles bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• Edgar Quero – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+190/-255)
  Edgar Quero has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 47% ROI)