Chicago White Sox
Washington Nationals
(-110/-110)-110
As the Washington Nationals take on the Chicago White Sox on September 27, 2025, both teams are mired in disappointing seasons, with records of 65-95 and 59-101, respectively. This Interleague matchup is crucial, albeit for pride rather than postseason aspirations. In their last encounter, the Nationals fell to the White Sox by a narrow margin of 10-9, a score showing the competitive spirit but also the struggles of both pitching staffs.
Jake Irvin is projected to take the mound for the Nationals, and while he holds the 255th ranking among starting pitchers in MLB, he did deliver a solid performance in his last outing on September 21, pitching 5 innings and giving up only 2 earned runs. His xFIP of 4.85 indicates that he might be due for some better luck, despite his overall rough season. Irvin’s projected stats suggest he may allow around 2.5 earned runs today, though his tendency to give up hits and walks could be a concern.
On the other side, the White Sox will start Tyler Gilbert, whose recent performance has been less than stellar. He pitched just 1 inning with no earned runs in his last start, yet his overall projections show a troubling outlook with projected averages significantly underwhelming in earned runs, walks, and strikeouts.
Offensively, the Nationals rank 25th in MLB, while the White Sox come in even lower at 28th. With the Nationals slightly better in batting average and home runs, they might edge out in this matchup, supported by their higher implied team total of 4.35 runs compared to the White Sox’s 4.15. This could set the stage for a competitive game, even if both teams are struggling to find their rhythm.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Sean Burke – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Sean Burke’s 2555-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 98th percentile among all SPs.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Kyle Teel – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Kyle Teel has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph to 97.6-mph over the past week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Colson Montgomery pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Jake Irvin – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)Jake Irvin has averaged 92.1 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, placing in the 79th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Daylen Lile – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Daylen Lile’s true offensive skill to be a .312, indicating that he has had some very good luck this year given the .046 difference between that mark and his actual .358 wOBA.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- The Washington Nationals have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Jorge Alfaro, Brady House).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 87 games (+9.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – Run Line -1.0 (+130)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 76 of their last 129 games (+12.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Colson Montgomery has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+8.35 Units / 75% ROI)