Weather Forecast for Phillies vs Blue Jays – June 04, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Toronto Blue Jays

On June 4, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Rogers Centre in what promises to be an exciting interleague matchup. Both teams are competing for playoff positioning, with the Blue Jays sitting at 31-29, showcasing an above-average season, while the Phillies boast a strong 37-23 record, indicating a great campaign thus far. The previous game in this series saw the Blue Jays secure a victory, which adds to the tension for this matchup.

Toronto’s Jose Berrios is projected to take the mound, bringing a mixed bag of performance with a 2-2 record and a solid ERA of 3.86. However, advanced metrics suggest that he might have been fortunate this season, with a 4.63 FIP indicating he could be due for a regression. Berrios has struggled with control, walking 9.6% of batters, which could be problematic against a patient Phillies lineup that ranks 4th in the league in walks.

On the other side, Philadelphia’s Mick Abel is set to start, having only pitched one game this season with an impressive 0.00 ERA. Still, his underlying numbers, including a 1.28 xFIP, hint that he too may be due for a downturn. Abel’s high strikeout rate of 40.9% could be challenged by a Blue Jays offense that ranks as the 2nd least strikeout-prone unit in MLB.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 11th in overall talent, with a particularly strong batting average, while the Phillies rank 6th. Given the Blue Jays’ recent strong performances and their favorable matchup against Abel, they may have the edge in this contest. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive and high-scoring affair. With both teams’ bullpens also in play, the Blue Jays’ 8th-ranked relief staff could make a significant difference down the stretch.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the weakest among every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-260/+195)
  Nick Castellanos is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies projected lineup profiles as the 4th-best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Jose Berrios has tallied 17.5 outs per start this year, ranking in the 86th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Alejandro Kirk has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.4-mph to 101.7-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen projects as the 7th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.70 Units / 22% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 away games (+6.95 Units / 35% ROI)
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-170/+130)
  Bo Bichette has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+7.15 Units / 36% ROI)