Weather Forecast for Padres vs Reds – June 29, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds host the San Diego Padres on June 29, 2025, both teams find themselves in solid form, with the Reds at 43-40 and the Padres slightly ahead at 45-37. This matchup is critical, not just for bragging rights in this three-game series but also for the Reds, who are still looking to solidify their position in the Wild Card race.

In their last game, the Reds managed to secure a victory, showcasing their offensive prowess with a strong performance from their best hitter, who has been on a tear lately. Over the past week, he has racked up 11 hits, 6 RBIs, and 3 home runs, boasting a remarkable .458 batting average. This offensive surge is crucial, especially against a Padres lineup that has struggled, ranking 23rd in MLB overall and 27th in home runs.

On the mound, the Reds will send Nick Lodolo to the hill. Lodolo, who has been solid this season with a 3.63 ERA, is ranked as the 81st best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, which indicates he is above average. He has averaged 5.5 innings per start with projections showing he could allow around 3 earned runs today. This is a favorable matchup against Stephen Kolek, who has struggled significantly, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB and carrying a higher ERA of 3.95.

The Reds’ offense, currently ranked 13th in MLB, is expected to capitalize against Kolek, who projects to allow 5.6 hits and 1.7 walks today. With a high game total of 9.0 runs, the Reds have an implied team total of 4.76 runs, indicating confidence in their ability to score. Given these dynamics, the Reds appear to have a slight edge in this matchup, making them a compelling choice for bettors looking to capitalize on their current form.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Stephen Kolek – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  When it comes to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Stephen Kolek in the 16th percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 85.8-mph average last season has dropped off to 83.5-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The San Diego Padres (18 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy group of batters of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Nick Lodolo’s 93-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.1-mph decline from last season’s 94.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Extreme groundball bats like Elly De La Cruz tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen projects as the 4th-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 48 games (+7.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games (+12.10 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Jose Iglesias has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.65 Units / 65% ROI)