Weather Forecast for Padres vs Reds – June 29, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds welcome the San Diego Padres to Great American Ball Park for the third game of their series on June 29, 2025, both teams are looking to build momentum. The Reds are currently 43-40, while the Padres hold a record of 45-37, indicating both squads are having above-average seasons. In their last matchup, the Reds fell to the Padres by a score of 6-4, marking a disappointing continuation of their recent struggles.

On the mound, the Reds are projected to start Nick Lodolo, who holds a 5-5 record and a solid ERA of 3.63. Lodolo, ranked as the 80th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has shown he can compete, although he has struggled somewhat with allowing hits and walks—projecting 6.2 hits and 1.5 walks today, which are concerning figures. The projections suggest he could allow 3.0 earned runs while pitching an average of 5.5 innings.

On the opposing side, the Padres will send Stephen Kolek to the mound. Kolek’s season has been more challenging with a 3-3 record and a 3.95 ERA, which places him among the lower tiers of MLB pitchers. His last outing saw him struggle, giving up 4 earned runs in just 4 innings. With both pitchers facing off, it will be crucial to see how they handle their respective lineups.

Offensively, the Reds rank 13th in MLB, with their best hitter enjoying a hot streak over the past week. Meanwhile, the Padres’ offense is ranked 23rd, significantly underperforming, especially in home runs where they sit 27th. The Reds have a high implied team total of 5.02 runs, suggesting that oddsmakers see them as favorites in this matchup. With both teams eyeing a win, today’s game should set the stage for another compelling division clash.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Stephen Kolek – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  When it comes to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Stephen Kolek in the 16th percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+165/-220)
  Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 85.8-mph average last season has dropped off to 83.5-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The San Diego Padres (18 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-heavy group of batters of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Nick Lodolo’s 93-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.1-mph decline from last season’s 94.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Extreme groundball bats like Elly De La Cruz tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen projects as the 5th-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 48 games (+7.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games (+12.10 Units / 25% ROI)
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1500)
  Gavin Lux has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)