Weather Forecast for Nationals vs Cardinals – July 27, 2024

Washington Nationals

@

St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals face off again on July 27, 2024, at Busch Stadium for the second game in their series. The Cardinals, who are having an average season with a 53-50 record, will look to bounce back after a disappointing 10-8 loss to the Nationals yesterday. The Nationals, on the other hand, are having a below-average season at 48-56 but took the series opener as underdogs.

Kyle Gibson is projected to start for the Cardinals. Despite a respectable 7-3 Win/Loss record and a 3.99 ERA, Gibson’s peripheral stats suggest some regression might be on the horizon. His 4.80 xERA indicates he has been somewhat fortunate this year. Gibson’s high-groundball rate (48%) could neutralize Washington’s lack of power, as the Nationals rank 29th in MLB in home runs. However, Gibson’s projections are not overly flattering: 5.9 innings, 2.7 earned runs, 4.4 strikeouts, and 6.0 hits allowed.

Jake Irvin will take the mound for the Nationals. With a 3.44 ERA and a 7-8 Win/Loss record, Irvin has shown flashes of brilliance. However, his projections for this game are fairly pedestrian: 5.4 innings, 2.8 earned runs, 4.1 strikeouts, and 5.4 hits allowed. Both pitchers are right-handed, which could play a role in how the offenses approach them.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 19th in MLB, a middling position that reflects their average season. Alec Burleson has been their standout hitter, boasting a .288 batting average and 18 home runs. Meanwhile, Michael Siani has been hot over the last week, hitting .400 with a .937 OPS. The Cardinals’ bullpen is also a strong point, ranking 5th in MLB.

The Nationals’ offense has struggled, ranking 26th overall. CJ Abrams leads the team with a .260 batting average and 15 home runs. However, Ildemaro Vargas has been their best hitter over the last week, hitting .400 with a .955 OPS. Washington’s bullpen, however, is a glaring weakness, ranking 29th.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Cardinals to score 4.71 runs, making them the favorites with a 59% win probability. Given the Cardinals’ better bullpen, home-field advantage, and slightly superior offense, they appear to have the edge in this matchup.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Jake Irvin has recorded 17.6 outs per game per started this year, placing in the 84th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  James Wood has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.1-mph to 97-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Gibson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Kyle Gibson’s change-up rate has dropped by 8.3% from last year to this one (17% to 8.7%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.0) provides evidence that Alec Burleson has experienced some positive variance this year with his 29.3 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  In today’s game, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.2% rate (100th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+140)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 49 games at home (+4.55 Units / 8% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 28 away games (+9.80 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jesse Winker – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 45 games (+9.60 Units / 19% ROI)