Weather Forecast for Mariners vs Blue Jays – April 20, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Toronto Blue Jays

On April 20, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Seattle Mariners at Rogers Centre, marking the third game in this crucial series. As the teams sit in the middle of the standings, the Blue Jays boast a 12-9 record while the Mariners are just behind at 11-10. Despite the close records, Toronto is projected to showcase a slight edge as the game approaches.

In their last matchup on April 19, the Blue Jays fell to the Mariners by a score of 8-4, continuing a tough stretch for Toronto that has seen its pitching struggles highlighted by Easton Lucas’s recent blow-up, where he allowed 8 earned runs in his last start. This game will see Lucas (2-1, 4.70 ERA) take the mound against Luis Castillo, who has a less favorable 1-2 record but a solid 4.22 ERA. However, the projections suggest that Castillo may not be as fortunate in this outing, given his 4.72 FIP, indicating he could face difficulties moving forward.

The Blue Jays offense ranks 16th in the league, and while they have shown some prowess with a 7th place ranking in team batting average, they remain a dismal 29th in home runs. This lack of power might be challenged by Castillo’s tendency to induce fly balls, but it also plays into the hands of the Blue Jays, who can capitalize on ground balls due to their limited power profile.

With both teams closely matched in terms of current form, this game could sway either direction, but the projections lean slightly in favor of the Blue Jays as they aim to bounce back and take advantage of their home field. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive contest.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis F. Castillo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Luis Castillo’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.6 mph this season (93.9 mph) below where it was last season (95.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Dylan Moore – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Dylan Moore has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (85% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-most strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Seattle Mariners with a 24.9% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Easton Lucas is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #2 HR venue among all parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nathan Lukes has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen grades out as the 5th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-175)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.75 Units / 34% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 21 games (+1.65 Units / 7% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+11.40 Units / 31% ROI)