Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
(-120/+100)-160
As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 9, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tightly contested National League West. The Padres sit at 49-42, enjoying an above-average season, while the Diamondbacks are slightly behind at 45-47, indicating an average campaign. In their last encounter, the Padres edged out the Diamondbacks with a narrow 1-0 victory, reinforcing the competitive nature of this series.
Dylan Cease is set to take the mound for San Diego. Despite his 3-8 record and a 4.62 ERA, his underlying metrics suggest he’s been somewhat unlucky, with a 3.38 xFIP indicating he could improve. Cease projects to allow 2.3 earned runs and strike out 6.7 batters today, which bodes well against a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 4th in home runs this season. However, Cease’s tendency to give up fly balls could be a double-edged sword against a powerful lineup.
On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt is projected to start for Arizona. With an 8-6 record and a 5.42 ERA, his performance has not met expectations, particularly as he faces one of the league’s weakest offenses—San Diego ranks just 23rd overall. Pfaadt’s projections show he may allow 3.0 earned runs while striking out only 4.5, which could favor the Padres lineup that struggles to capitalize on strikeouts.
The Padres’ bullpen ranks 7th, compared to the Diamondbacks’ 21st, suggesting that San Diego may have the edge in late-game situations. The low Game Total of 7.5 runs reflects the expected tight matchup, but with the Padres’ stronger overall metrics, they are favored to come out on top in this critical divisional clash.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #10 HR venue in MLB today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Cracking 4 home runs over the past two weeks, Ketel Marte has been on fire of late.Explain: Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.
- The 9.3% Barrel% of the Arizona Diamondbacks makes them the #8 squad in baseball this year by this standard.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
San Diego Padres Insights
- San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)Dylan Cease has been unlucky in regards to his ERA this year; his 4.62 rate is a good deal higher than his 3.52 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
- Bryce Johnson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Extreme flyball batters like Bryce Johnson generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 65 games (+15.12 Units / 20% ROI)
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 68 games (+13.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-120/-110)Brandon Pfaadt has hit the Earned Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 51% ROI)