Weather Forecast for D-Backs vs Padres – July 09, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

San Diego Padres

On July 9, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park for the third game of their series. The Padres recently took the first two games and are looking to build on their above-average season with a record of 49-42, while the Diamondbacks sit at a mediocre 45-47. Notably, the Padres are projected to start Dylan Cease, who has had a challenging year with a 3-8 record and an ERA of 4.62. Despite these struggles, advanced statistics rank him as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he might be due for a turnaround.

Cease’s peripherals suggest he has been unlucky this year, and he projects to pitch around 5.7 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs. However, he faces a daunting challenge against a powerful Diamondbacks offense that ranks 4th in the league with 133 home runs this season. Their strength in power hitting could exploit Cease’s tendency to allow fly balls, potentially leading to home runs that could swing the game.

On the other hand, Brandon Pfaadt will take the mound for Arizona, bringing his 8-6 record and a less impressive ERA of 5.42. Projections indicate that he might struggle against a Padres offense that, while ranking 23rd in MLB, has shown some signs of life. The matchup favors the Padres, especially given their strong bullpen, which ranks 5th in the league, compared to the Diamondbacks’ last-ranked bullpen.

Given the Padres’ favorable odds and projected team total of 4.27 runs, they may well capitalize on their home advantage and continue their winning streak against a struggling Diamondbacks team.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #10 HR venue in MLB today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Cracking 4 home runs over the past two weeks, Ketel Marte has been on fire of late.
  Explain: Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have 7 bats in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Dylan Cease in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Martin Maldonado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+160/-210)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Martin Maldonado in the 0th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 65 games (+15.12 Units / 20% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 68 games (+13.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-125/-105)
  Brandon Pfaadt has hit the Earned Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 51% ROI)