Weather Forecast for Cardinals vs Padres – August 01, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on August 1, 2025, they are looking to build on a recent shutout victory against the Atlanta Braves on July 30, where they triumphed 5-0. The Padres stand at 60-49, enjoying a solid season thus far. Meanwhile, the Cardinals sit at an even 55-55, having lost their last game to the New York Mets 2-0.

This matchup features two pitchers with contrasting seasons. Nick Pivetta, projected to start for the Padres, has been a standout with a 10-3 record and an impressive 2.81 ERA, ranking as the 51st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Pivetta’s ability to generate strikeouts (27.2 K%) may pose a challenge for the Cardinals, who rank among the lowest in MLB for strikeouts. However, Pivetta’s projections indicate he could allow a troubling 4.6 hits and 1.4 walks today.

On the other side, Matthew Liberatore, who has struggled with a 6-8 record and a 4.04 ERA, is set to take the mound for the Cardinals. His low strikeout rate (18.7 K%) could spell trouble against a Padres lineup that has been efficient in avoiding strikeouts, ranking 3rd least in MLB.

Offensively, the Padres have been inconsistent, ranking 22nd overall and 28th in home runs. However, their best hitter is currently red-hot, boasting a blistering .520 batting average over the last week. In contrast, the Cardinals’ best hitter has also been productive but lacks the same level of recent success.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs and the Padres favored at -190, the odds suggest a favorable outcome for San Diego. However, given the Cardinals’ competitive bullpen (ranked 6th), this matchup remains intriguing for bettors. The projections indicate the Padres could capitalize on their home advantage, making them a team to watch as they aim to secure another win in this series.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  The San Diego Padres have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Matthew Liberatore today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Willson Contreras has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 95-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 7th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Nick Pivetta has compiled a 27% K% this year, checking in at the 87th percentile.
  Explain: One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ramon Laureano’s true offensive talent to be a .324, suggesting that he has had some very good luck this year given the .052 disparity between that mark and his actual .376 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen ranks as the best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 68 games (+15.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 53 away games (+10.11 Units / 15% ROI)
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+195/-260)
  Ivan Herrera has hit the Walks Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+8.20 Units / 91% ROI)