Weather Forecast for Braves vs Phillies – August 28, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves on August 28, 2025, in a crucial National League East matchup. The Phillies currently sit at 76-57, enjoying a solid season, while the Braves, with a record of 61-72, find themselves in a disappointing position. In their last games, the Phillies suffered a shutout loss to the Braves by a score of 6-0, while the Braves cruised to a dominant 12-1 victory. This series opener presents an opportunity for the Phillies to bounce back and assert their dominance in the division.

Aaron Nola is projected to take the mound for Philadelphia, despite a Win/Loss record of 2-7 this season and an ERA of 6.52, indicating he’s had a rough go. However, his advanced stats suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP of 3.60 projects a more favorable performance ahead. Nola showed signs of improvement in his last start on August 23, where he pitched 6 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs.

On the other side, Cal Quantrill is slated to start for Atlanta. With a Win/Loss record of 4-11 and an ERA of 5.51, he also has struggled this season. His projections indicate a challenging outing, with an average of only 4.4 innings pitched and 3.1 earned runs allowed.

The Phillies’ offense ranks as the 8th best in MLB and boasts the 3rd highest batting average, which should provide ample support against a Braves team that has struggled offensively, ranking 14th overall. With the Phillies’ strong bullpen, ranked 2nd overall, they are well-positioned to capitalize on their favorable matchup and secure a victory in this high-stakes game.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Cal Quantrill has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  As it relates to his batting average, Ronald Acuna Jr. has been lucky this year. His .301 BA has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .258.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (+145)
  The Atlanta Braves projected lineup projects as the 4th-best of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Aaron Nola’s change-up rate has spiked by 5.1% from last year to this one (9.6% to 14.7%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  J.T. Realmuto is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 58 of their last 94 games (+17.01 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 53 games (+7.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+370/-560)
  Jurickson Profar has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+16.00 Units / 160% ROI)