Weather for Twins vs Mariners Game – 5/30/25

Minnesota Twins

@

Seattle Mariners

On May 30, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Minnesota Twins at T-Mobile Park for the first game of a crucial series. Both teams have been performing above average this season, each holding a record of 30-25. However, following their last contests, the Mariners are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 9-3 loss, while the Twins are reeling from a shutout defeat, losing 5-0.

Seattle’s Bryan Woo, ranked 18th among MLB starting pitchers, is projected to start. He boasts a solid 5-2 record and an impressive 2.40 ERA, although his 3.36 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this season. Woo typically pitches around 6.2 innings, allowing just 2.1 earned runs on average, which gives the Mariners a significant edge against a struggling Twins offense.

Contrastingly, Minnesota’s Zebby Matthews, who is making just his third start of the year, has a troubling 7.71 ERA and a 0-1 record. His projections indicate he may struggle as he averages only 4.8 innings pitched and allows 2.1 earned runs. The Mariners could take advantage of Matthews’ high walk rate, as they rank 3rd in MLB in drawing walks, something that could further exploit his control issues.

Seattle’s offense ranks 11th overall and has been productive in terms of power, ranking 6th in home runs. With their best hitter recently performing well, including a .318 batting average over the past week, the Mariners look poised to capitalize on their home advantage.

As the Mariners enter this matchup as betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, the projections suggest a favorable outcome for them. Given the stats and recent performances, this game could be a pivotal moment for Seattle as they look to maintain momentum against a Twins team that has struggled to find its footing offensively.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Zebby Matthews is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #9 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Trevor Larnach can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-165/+125)
  Bryan Woo’s four-seamer usage has dropped by 6.9% from last year to this one (49% to 42.1%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Typically, bats like Jorge Polanco who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Zebby Matthews.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+7.90 Units / 60% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 48 games (+11.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 games (+9.15 Units / 152% ROI)