Weather for Royals vs Braves Game – 9/28/24

Kansas City Royals

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves and Kansas City Royals meet on September 28, 2024, at Truist Park for the second game of their interleague series. With both teams eyeing the playoffs, this matchup holds significant weight. The Braves carry a slightly better season record (87-71) compared to the Royals’ 85-75 mark. After the Braves took the first game of the series yesterday, they are looking to extend their lead, which could be crucial as they chase postseason positions.

Reynaldo Lopez is set to start for the Braves. Though ranked as the 70th best starting pitcher, his peripheral stats suggest some luck has aided his impressive 2.03 ERA this season. He’ll face a Royals lineup known for their low strikeout rate, which could challenge Lopez’s strength. Despite this, the Braves’ home advantage and their higher ranking as the 12th best offense, particularly in home runs, creates a potential edge. Their power, ranked 4th in the league, could pose a significant threat to Kansas City’s pitching.

For the Royals, Seth Lugo takes the mound as the 65th ranked starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.03. Like Lopez, Lugo’s xFIP suggests he might be pitching above his true skill level. He’ll have the task of quieting a Braves offense powered by recent performance from Gio Urshela, who boasts a .400 average and a 1.333 OPS over the last week. Kansas City’s offensive strength lies in their contact, ranking 7th in batting average, though their power output lags behind at 21st in homers.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Braves have a favored win probability of 57%, aligning with the betting lines yet encouraging for those backing Atlanta. As the series unfolds, expect a tightly contested battle with postseason implications.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Seth Lugo’s 91.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.2-mph drop off from last year’s 92.8-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Maikel Garcia is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Kansas City Royals (20.8 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 5th-least strikeout-prone set of batters of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Reynaldo Lopez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Reynaldo Lopez to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Michael Harris II has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 98.6-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen projects as the 9th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 90 of their last 143 games (+36.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-165/+125)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 34 games (+9.00 Units / 26% ROI)