Weather for Rangers vs Tigers Game – 5/9/25

Texas Rangers

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Detroit Tigers

On May 9, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Texas Rangers at Comerica Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Tigers, who currently hold a solid record of 25-13 and boast the 1st best bullpen in MLB, are riding a wave of success and are heavily favored, with a moneyline of -260 and an implied team total of 4.59 runs. Conversely, the Rangers sit at 18-20, struggling with the 27th ranked offense in the league.

In their last game, the Tigers showcased their prowess, with their ace pitcher, Tarik Skubal, starting strong and continuing his excellent season. Skubal, ranked as the #1 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has an impressive ERA of 2.21 and projects to allow just 1.7 earned runs in 6.1 innings today. However, his xERA suggests he may be due for some regression.

Patrick Corbin takes the mound for the Rangers, but his performance has not matched Skubal’s. While Corbin has a respectable ERA of 3.28, he ranks among the bottom pitchers in MLB, and the projections indicate that he is likely to face challenges against the Tigers’ powerful offense, which ranks 6th overall and 7th in home runs.

While both pitchers are left-handed and will face their respective teams, the Tigers have an advantage with their high strikeout rate, which could exploit Corbin’s low strikeout percentage. Given the Tigers’ offensive strength and Skubal’s elite pitching, Detroit appears poised to secure a win in this matchup.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Patrick Corbin’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.2 mph this season (90.2 mph) below where it was last year (91.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Jonah Heim is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• It may be sensible to expect positive regression for the Texas Rangers offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-195/+150)
  Recording 17.4 outs per game per started this year on average, Tarik Skubal falls in the 84th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Spencer Torkelson has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.6-mph dropping to 80.5-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 28 games (+10.35 Units / 30% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 38 games (+14.70 Units / 33% ROI)
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Javier Baez has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+9.20 Units / 115% ROI)