Weather for Cubs vs White Sox Game – 7/25/25

Chicago Cubs

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Chicago White Sox

On July 25, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Chicago Cubs at Guaranteed Rate Field in an exciting Interleague matchup. The stakes are high, especially considering the Cubs are riding a strong season with a record of 60-42, while the White Sox are struggling at 37-66. The White Sox have shown some signs of life recently, winning their last game against the Minnesota Twins by a score of 11-9, while the Cubs fell to the San Francisco Giants, losing 8-4.

The matchup on the mound features Adrian Houser for the White Sox and Shota Imanaga for the Cubs. Houser has been inconsistent, projected to allow 2.9 earned runs over 5.0 innings, with a troubling 3.91 xFIP suggesting he might be due for regression. In contrast, Imanaga is coming off a solid start, pitching 7 innings of shutout ball in his last appearance. His projections are more favorable, suggesting he could allow around 2.7 earned runs over 5.3 innings, showcasing his ability to limit damage.

Offensively, the Cubs rank as the 4th best offense in MLB, bolstered by their 3rd most home runs this season. On the other hand, the White Sox offense is ranked 29th, struggling significantly with a poor batting average and low power numbers. This stark contrast could heavily influence the game’s outcome.

Despite the odds, the White Sox have a chance to pull off an upset, especially as they face a left-handed pitcher in Imanaga, which could play to their advantage. However, with the Cubs’ superior hitting and Imanaga’s strong performance, Chicago’s North Siders enter this matchup as the favorites, with the projections indicating a higher likelihood of success. The Game Total is set at an average 8.0 runs, adding to the intrigue of this cross-town rivalry.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  The Chicago White Sox have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage over Shota Imanaga in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Despite posting a .390 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Michael Busch has been lucky given the .046 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .344.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.9% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Adrian Houser – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Adrian Houser’s fastball velocity has jumped 1.4 mph this season (93.5 mph) over where it was last year (92.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Mike Tauchman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Mike Tauchman is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Chicago White Sox have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Colson Montgomery, Michael A. Taylor, Mike Tauchman).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 80 games (+10.45 Units / 11% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-180)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 95 games (+11.15 Units / 8% ROI)
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+115)
  Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 35% ROI)