New York Yankees
Athletics
(-105/-115)+135
As the New York Yankees continue to assert their dominance in the American League, they find themselves in a solid position with a record of 22-16. This places them firmly in the playoff conversation, with their potent offense ranking 1st in MLB. The Yankees recently defeated the Oakland Athletics 10-2, showcasing their firepower and extending their winning streak.
The Athletics, on the other hand, are sitting at 20-19—an average record suggesting a middle-of-the-pack performance this season. While they boast the 11th best offense in MLB, they struggle with stolen bases, ranking 29th. Oakland’s best hitter has been a bright spot, recently hitting .520 in the past week, but overall, their lineup has not been able to keep pace with New York’s elite scoring ability.
Starting for the Athletics is JP Sears, who has a respectable ERA of 2.93 this year but is ranked 133rd among MLB starters. Sears’s last outing was solid, going 6 innings with just 2 earned runs. However, his projected performance today may not inspire confidence, as he is expected to allow an average of 3.1 earned runs and 5.3 hits, coupled with a high flyball rate against a Yankees team that leads the league with 66 home runs.
Carlos Rodon takes the mound for New York, with a slightly better rank at 68th in MLB but a comparable ERA of 2.96. His last start was particularly impressive, shutting the opposition out over 7 innings. Rodon’s ability to rack up strikeouts will be tested against a low-strikeout Athletics lineup, potentially putting more pressure on Oakland’s offense.
With the Game Total set at a high 10.0 runs, and the Yankees favored at -155 with an implied team total of 5.49 runs, this matchup points toward another high-scoring affair. Given the trends and the projections, the Yankees may find themselves in a favorable position to come away with another victory.
New York Yankees Insights
- New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #9 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Trent Grisham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)Trent Grisham is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Aaron Judge – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Aaron Judge hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Athletics Insights
- JP Sears – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)JP Sears has utilized his slider 9.4% more often this season (43.2%) than he did last season (33.8%).Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)Tyler Soderstrom has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 92.7-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Athletics have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, Lawrence Butler, Nicholas Kurtz).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+4.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+140/-180)Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.30 Units / 28% ROI)