Watch the Tigers vs Mariners Game Highlights – April 1st, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Seattle Mariners

On April 1, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Detroit Tigers at T-Mobile Park for the second game of their series. The Mariners, currently sitting at 2-2, have had an average start to the season, while the Tigers are struggling at 0-3, marking a terrible beginning. The Mariners are favored in this matchup, with a moneyline of -160, reflecting their higher expectations against a Tigers team that has been underwhelming.

Seattle’s Logan Gilbert is projected to take the mound, coming off a strong performance in which he recorded a complete game shutout. Gilbert has been impressive this season, boasting an ERA of 1.29, although his 2.26 xERA suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune. He projects to pitch around 5.4 innings today, allowing just 1.4 earned runs on average, making him a significant asset against a Tigers offense that ranks 25th in MLB.

Casey Mize, the Tigers’ starter, has not found his rhythm, and his projections indicate he could struggle, expected to pitch only 4.9 innings while allowing 2.0 earned runs. With a below-average strikeout rate of 4.8, he faces a Mariners lineup that, while ranked 22nd overall, still possesses the power to capitalize on pitching mistakes.

The Game Total is set at a low 7.0 runs, indicating expectations for a tight contest. However, with the Mariners’ bullpen ranked 19th and the Tigers’ bullpen rated 7th, the latter may provide a glimmer of hope for Detroit if the game remains close. Ultimately, Seattle’s strong starting pitching and the Tigers’ offensive woes make this matchup one to watch, particularly for bettors looking for value in the Mariners’ implied win probability of 60%.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Casey Mize’s 95.4-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 82nd percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Zach McKinstry has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Jake Rogers, the Tigers’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)
  Logan Gilbert has averaged 19 outs per game per started since the start of last season, checking in at the 100th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Rowdy Tellez is quite slow, placing in the 1st percentile in Sprint Speed at 24.17 ft/sec since the start of last season.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-125/+105)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 74 games at home (+12.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-155)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 54 of their last 82 games (+24.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Victor Robles – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Victor Robles has hit the Hits Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 47% ROI)