Watch the Rays vs Mets Game Highlights – June 15th, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets and Tampa Bay Rays continue their interleague series on June 15, 2025, both teams are at pivotal points in their seasons. The Mets, sitting at 45-26, are enjoying a strong campaign, currently ranked 1st in MLB in offensive production. Meanwhile, the Rays are competing well but find themselves at 38-32, which is just above average.

The Mets will look to bounce back after a disappointing 8-4 loss to the Rays in the previous game, where the Tampa Bay squad showcased their potential. Griffin Canning is set to take the mound for New York, coming off a less-than-stellar outing where he allowed 4 earned runs in just 5 innings on June 10. His ERA stands at 3.22 this season, though advanced metrics suggest luck has played a role in his performance.

Contrarily, Shane Baz will pitch for Tampa Bay. With an ERA of 4.97 and a Power Rankings position of 78th out of 350 pitchers, he has had his share of ups and downs. However, the projections indicate he may be due for a bounce-back performance today, especially given the Mets’ tendency to struggle against ground-ball pitchers like Baz, who has a GB% of 51.

While the Rays hold a mediocre 16th ranking in offensive output, their ability to run the bases has been noteworthy, leading MLB in stolen bases. This could pose a challenge for the Mets, whose bullpen ranks 26th in the league.

With a Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs and the Mets favored with a moneyline of -150, this matchup presents an intriguing betting scenario where New York’s potent offense might shine against Tampa Bay’s inconsistent pitching.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Given that groundball pitchers have a substantial edge over groundball batters, Shane Baz and his 43.6% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position in today’s outing being matched up with 2 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen projects as the 8th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Griffin Canning has utilized his slider 8.2% more often this year (32.2%) than he did last year (24%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Luisangel Acuna – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Typically, batters like Luisangel Acuna who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Shane Baz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 65 games (+10.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 69 games (+9.85 Units / 13% ROI)
• Taylor Walls – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1200/-7000)
  Taylor Walls has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 5 games (+10.00 Units / 200% ROI)