Watch the Mets vs Phillies Game Highlights – June 21st, 2025

New York Mets

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face the New York Mets on June 21, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park, both teams are in a tight race in the National League East. The Phillies currently hold a slight edge with a record of 46-30, while the Mets are close behind at 45-31. This matchup is crucial as both teams aim to solidify their positions in the standings.

In their last game on June 20, the Phillies showcased their offensive prowess by dominating the Mets 10-2, highlighting their strength as the 6th best offense in MLB. The Phillies will start Mick Abel, who has a solid Win/Loss record of 2-0 and an impressive ERA of 2.21, despite being ranked as the 267th best starting pitcher. His last outing on June 16 was successful, allowing just 1 earned run over 5 innings.

On the other hand, the Mets will counter with Griffin Canning, who has struggled recently, allowing 6 earned runs in just 4 innings in his last start on June 15. Canning’s ERA sits at 3.80, but his metrics suggest he may be due for a regression. His inability to control walks, ranking with a 10.9 BB%, could prove detrimental against the Phillies’ patient lineup, which ranks 6th in MLB for drawing walks.

The game total is set at a high 10.0 runs, indicating expectations for another high-scoring affair. The projections suggest a close contest, but given the recent form of both pitchers and the offensive capabilities of the Phillies, they appear to have the edge in this pivotal matchup.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-110)
  The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Juan Soto has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.7-mph to 96.6-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Mick Abel – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-165/+125)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Mick Abel is projected to throw 84 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 10th-least of all pitchers today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Kyle Schwarber has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 41.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a good deal higher than his 29.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Otto Kemp, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 73 games (+14.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.70 Units / 38% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.60 Units / 30% ROI)