Watch the Mets vs Phillies Game Highlights – June 21st, 2025

New York Mets

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets on June 21, 2025, both teams are in fierce competition for supremacy in the National League East. The Phillies, currently holding a record of 46-30, are just a game ahead of the Mets at 45-31. This matchup has significant implications for the standings, especially considering the Phillies’ recent 10-2 victory over the Mets in their last game on June 20, which highlighted the Phillies’ offensive prowess.

Mick Abel is projected to start for the Phillies. Despite being ranked as the 267th best starting pitcher in MLB, Abel has an impressive 2-0 record this season and a stellar ERA of 2.21. However, his peripherals suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as his xFIP is significantly higher at 3.70. Abel’s low walk rate (4.9 BB%) could work in his favor against a Mets lineup that is known for drawing walks. The projections indicate he may struggle to pitch deep into the game, averaging only 4.5 innings with 3.2 earned runs allowed.

On the other side, Griffin Canning takes the mound for the Mets. Canning has a 6-3 record with a respectable ERA of 3.80. However, he has struggled with control, evidenced by a high walk rate of 10.9 BB%. This could be problematic against a Phillies offense that ranks 6th in MLB and is adept at drawing walks, giving them a potential advantage in this matchup.

With both teams coming off a high-scoring affair, today’s game total is set at a lofty 10.5 runs, indicating expectations for another offensive showcase. The betting markets reflect this tight contest, with the Phillies holding a moneyline of -105 and the Mets at -115. As the series continues, both teams will look to assert their dominance in this critical matchup.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  In his last game started, Griffin Canning was in good form and allowed 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Juan Soto has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.7-mph to 96.6-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Mick Abel – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+115)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Mick Abel is projected to throw 83 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 10th-least of all pitchers today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Kyle Schwarber has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 41.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a good deal higher than his 29.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Otto Kemp, Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 73 games (+14.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.70 Units / 38% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.60 Units / 30% ROI)