Watch the Game Highlights for Yankees vs Orioles – Saturday, July 13, 2024

New York Yankees

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Baltimore Orioles

As the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles face off on July 13, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, both squads find themselves in excellent form within the American League East standings. The Orioles enter this matchup with a 57-37 record, while the Yankees are close behind at 57-39, ensuring this game is crucial for divisional supremacy. Yesterday’s game, the series opener, witnessed impressive performances from both teams.

The Orioles will hand the ball to Grayson Rodriguez, who has been solid this season with an 11-3 Win/Loss record and a respectable 3.52 ERA. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, places him as the 57th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, highlighting his reliability. Rodriguez is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs on 5.1 hits and 1.9 walks, which is consistent yet somewhat concerning given his high hit and walk rates.

On the other side, the Yankees will counter with Luis Gil. Gil, who has notched a 9-5 Win/Loss record and a stellar 3.27 ERA, ranks 51st according to THE BAT X. Notably, his 4.14 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this season. Gil is projected to pitch 5.2 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs on 5.0 hits and 2.2 walks. His tendency to generate flyballs (40 FB%) could be problematic against Baltimore’s powerful lineup, which leads MLB with 147 home runs.

Baltimore’s offense is a force to be reckoned with, ranking 2nd in overall talent and 1st in home runs, whereas the Yankees aren’t far off, ranking 5th in overall offense and 2nd in home runs. However, New York’s struggles on the basepaths, ranking 29th in stolen bases, limit their offensive versatility. Heston Kjerstad, Baltimore’s best hitter over the past week, boasts a scorching .462 batting average and a 1.226 OPS, providing the Orioles with a red-hot bat in the lineup. In contrast, Jose Trevino has been leading the charge for the Yankees, hitting .333 with a 1.067 OPS over his last four games.

The bullpens could also play a pivotal role. Baltimore’s relievers rank 12th best in the league, compared to New York’s 21st ranking, potentially giving the Orioles a late-game edge. Betting markets suggest a competitive game, with Baltimore holding a slight edge at -135 and an implied win probability of 55%. Given their potent offense and home field advantage, the Orioles seem well-positioned to secure a victory against their division rival.

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Luis Gil has averaged 93.5 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, checking in at the 84th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Baltimore’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Juan Soto, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (+120)
  The best projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the New York Yankees.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Grayson Rodriguez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  Grayson Rodriguez’s curveball utilization has risen by 7.5% from last year to this one (8.2% to 15.7%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Ryan Mountcastle is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Baltimore’s 90-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the majors: #2 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 86 games (+12.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Run Line +1.5 (-175)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 72 games (+12.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (-215/+165)
  Juan Soto has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.65 Units / 38% ROI)