Chicago White Sox
Seattle Mariners
(-110/-110)-250
On August 6, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Chicago White Sox at T-Mobile Park in an American League showdown. The Mariners, sporting a 61-53 record, are enjoying an above-average season, while the White Sox, with a dismal 42-71 record, are struggling significantly. These two teams faced off yesterday, with the Mariners emerging victorious, further highlighting their solid performance as they look to maintain momentum.
Seattle is projected to start George Kirby, who has been impressive this season, ranking as the 28th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Kirby has a Win/Loss record of 6-5 and a respectable ERA of 4.13, though his 3.40 xFIP suggests he has been a bit unlucky this year. He typically pitches 6.1 innings and is projected to allow just 2.0 earned runs today, showcasing an elite capability. In contrast, Jonathan Cannon takes the mound for Chicago. Cannon has started 18 games this season, posting a 4-8 record and a less favorable ERA of 4.77, making him one of the less effective pitchers in the league.
From an offensive standpoint, the Mariners rank 10th overall in MLB, bolstered by their 4th position in home runs. Their ability to capitalize on Cannon’s high fly-ball rate could spell trouble for the White Sox. Meanwhile, Chicago’s offense ranks 29th in the league, struggling to generate runs effectively.
Betting odds favor the Mariners significantly, with a moneyline of -255 indicating a strong implied team total of 4.57 runs. Given the matchup of Kirby against a weak White Sox lineup, this could be a prime opportunity for Seattle to expand their lead in the series.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Jonathan Cannon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)Jonathan Cannon has gone to his cutter 5.2% more often this year (25%) than he did last year (19.8%).Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Colson Montgomery has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph to 95.8-mph over the last two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Chicago White Sox have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Colson Montgomery, Luis Robert Jr., Kyle Teel).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Seattle Mariners Insights
- George Kirby – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Out of all SPs, George Kirby’s fastball velocity of 95.4 mph ranks in the 86th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Eugenio Suarez has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs this year; his 48.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably higher than his 32.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Seattle Mariners – 2H MoneylineThe Seattle Mariners bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 114 games (+6.05 Units / 5% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (-105)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 83 games (+10.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- George Kirby – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)George Kirby has hit the Strikeouts Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.50 Units / 57% ROI)