Watch the Game Highlights for Rays vs Yankees – Saturday, July 20, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees continue their strong season as they host the Tampa Bay Rays on July 20, 2024, at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, with a 59-40 record, are looking to widen their lead in the American League East, while the Rays, sitting at 48-49, are struggling to stay relevant in the division. Yesterday, the Yankees dominated the Rays with a 6-1 victory, showcasing their offensive prowess.

New York’s offensive firepower, ranked 4th best in the league, is led by Aaron Judge, who has been exceptional this season with 34 home runs, 86 RBIs, and a .308 batting average. The Yankees’ lineup also ranks 2nd in MLB in home runs, which could spell trouble for Rays’ starter Taj Bradley, a high-flyball pitcher. Bradley, despite his impressive 2.90 ERA, has been fortunate this year, with a 3.67 FIP suggesting potential regression. His projection for today isn’t favorable, with an expected 4.9 innings, 2.9 earned runs, and 4.8 hits allowed.

On the mound for the Yankees will be Nestor Cortes, who, despite a solid 3.67 ERA, has a misleading 4-8 record. Cortes is projected to pitch 5.7 innings, allow 2.4 earned runs, and strike out 6.3 batters, all of which are positive indicators. With the Rays’ offense ranking 22nd in MLB and struggling in key categories like home runs (26th) and batting average (20th), Cortes appears to have the upper hand.

The Yankees’ bullpen, ranked 18th, is average, while the Rays’ bullpen, ranked 10th, is more reliable. However, the offensive disparity and the Yankees’ recent form make them the favorites. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Yankees a 65% win probability, higher than the implied 59% from betting odds. With the Yankees’ high implied team total of 4.66 runs and the Rays at 3.84, New York looks poised to continue their winning streak against Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Taj Bradley has averaged 92.5 adjusted pitches per GS this year, grading out in the 78th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Amed Rosario – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Hitters such as Amed Rosario with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Nestor Cortes who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+135)
  The 5th-worst projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

New York Yankees Insights

• Nestor Cortes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Nestor Cortes’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (53.5% compared to 47.5% last year) should work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Anthony Volpe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York’s 89.9-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in baseball: #3 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 44 of their last 81 games (+12.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games (+12.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• Trent Grisham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-155/+120)
  Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+8.85 Units / 34% ROI)