Watch the Game Highlights for Rangers vs Tigers – Sunday, May 11, 2025

Texas Rangers

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Detroit Tigers

On May 11, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Texas Rangers at Comerica Park in what promises to be an exciting matchup. Currently, the Tigers hold a strong 26-14 record this season, ranking among the top teams in the American League, while the Rangers sit at 19-21, struggling to find their footing. The Tigers boast one of the best offenses, ranking 7th in MLB, supported by a powerhouse bullpen that ranks 1st, according to advanced metrics.

In their last game, the Tigers secured a convincing victory, extending their recent hot streak. The Tigers’ Reese Olson, projected to start, has been a solid performer this season with a Win/Loss record of 4-2 and an impressive 3.03 ERA. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been a bit fortunate, as it stands at 3.57. Olson’s high walk rate (10.6 BB%) could be an area of concern against a Rangers lineup that struggles to draw walks, potentially giving Olson an edge in this matchup.

On the other hand, Nathan Eovaldi will take the mound for the Rangers. Eovaldi has been effective with a 2.03 ERA and a solid 3.50 xERA, suggesting he too has enjoyed a stroke of luck this season. However, facing a Tigers offense that strikes out frequently (5th most in MLB) may give Eovaldi the opportunity to capitalize on his strikeout ability.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, this contest is expected to be closely contested. Betting markets indicate a tight game with the Tigers at -115 and the Rangers at -105, reflecting the competitive nature of this matchup. Despite the Tigers’ favorable ranking and solid play, bettors might find value in the Rangers, whose recent performances could signal a turnaround.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)
  Nathan Eovaldi has tallied 18.2 outs per start this year, grading out in the 96th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Over the past two weeks, Wyatt Langford’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.7% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Josh Jung hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Reese Olson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  Reese Olson’s four-seamer usage has decreased by 10.2% from last year to this one (23.6% to 13.4%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Zach McKinstry has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.5-mph dropping to 80.4-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Detroit Tigers in today’s game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .317, which is a fair amount lower than their actual wOBA of .328 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.75 Units / 25% ROI)
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-4000)
  Javier Baez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+18.40 Units / 263% ROI)