Watch the Game Highlights for Phillies vs Nationals – Saturday, August 16, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Washington Nationals

As the Philadelphia Phillies and the Washington Nationals gear up for their matchup on August 16, 2025, the stakes remain high for the Phillies, who are in pursuit of a Wild Card spot. Currently sitting at 70-52, the Phillies are enjoying a solid season, while the Nationals languish at 49-73, struggling to find any rhythm. In their last encounter, the Phillies triumphed over the Nationals with a decisive 6-2 victory, further emphasizing the disparity in their seasons.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start Cade Cavalli, who has had a mixed year. Despite being ranked as the 88th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Cavalli has only made two starts this season, with a respectable ERA of 3.86. However, he projects poorly for this game, averaging just 4.7 innings pitched and allowing 2.5 earned runs, which is below average. His last outing saw him surrender four earned runs over five innings, highlighting his inconsistency.

Conversely, the Phillies will counter with Taijuan Walker, who, despite being viewed as one of the worst pitchers in the league, has managed a solid ERA of 3.39 this season. Walker’s projections suggest he will pitch around 5.3 innings and allow 3.1 earned runs, which, while not stellar, is better than Cavalli’s projections. Notably, Walker pitched well in his last start, going six innings with just one earned run.

Offensively, the Phillies boast the 9th best lineup in MLB, while the Nationals rank a dismal 23rd. This season, the Phillies’ best hitter has racked up an impressive 43 home runs, compared to the Nationals’ best, who has only 25. With the game total set at a high 10.0 runs and the Nationals being a +120 underdog, the odds seem to favor the Phillies, who have a high implied total of 5.36 runs. Expect another strong performance from the Phillies as they look to maintain their momentum against a struggling Nationals squad.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Taijuan Walker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Taijuan Walker’s 2142-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 17th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Max Kepler has suffered from bad luck this year. His .292 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .336.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Philadelphia Phillies hitters collectively have been one of the best in the league this year (6th-) when assessing their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Cade Cavalli – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+135)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Cade Cavalli has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -13.6 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Riley Adams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Riley Adams has strong power (78th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (32.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker struggles to strike batters out (3rd percentile K%) — great news for Adams.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 46 games (+13.15 Units / 26% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 69 games (+17.61 Units / 21% ROI)
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.15 Units / 31% ROI)